State of Play
Executive: In a
surprise visit to Afghanistan this week, President Obama and President Hamid
Karzai signed a long-term
strategic agreement governing future military, diplomatic, and economic
relations between the two nations.
However, the agreement is short on specifics, and does not guarantee
specific amounts of future U.S. aid to Afghanistan nor does it state the exact
levels of NATO or U.S. troops expected to remain past 2014. In
its semi-annual
report to Congress on stability operations in Afghanistan, the Pentagon
notes that corruption in the Afghan government, militant sanctuaries in
Pakistan, and poor U.S.-Pakistani relations pose the largest obstacles to
long-term security in Afghanistan.
Despite the fact that the services have declined to submit to
Congress an annual unfunded priorities list, U.S.
Special Operations Command has requested $143 million for improved intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.
The Navy has proposed retiring four cruisers in FY13 as part of its
overall savings plan; however HASC
has moved to prohibit funding for the cruisers’ retirement as part of its
markup of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The NDAA mark also blocks the proposed decommissioning
of the Global
Hawk Block 30 drone, does
not include proposed funding for two new rounds of base closures, and it provides
nearly $400 million in unrequested funding for heavy combat vehicles. The
House committee has also added language increasing procurement of
Virginia-class submarines in FY14, and it
appears as if the Senate may concur.
A small
number of Air Force pilots are refusing to operate the F-22 Raptor following
an official investigation that could not determine the root cause of eleven
malfunctions in the oxygen-supply system.
Meanwhile, the United States has deployed an unknown number of F-22s to
the United Arab Emirates, which Iran has called a “plot” by the United States
and Israel to create instability in the region, although analysts have noted
that this batch of F-22s
has not been upgraded to engage ground targets. The United States also appears to be
reversing its decision not to sell new F-16s to Taiwan raising tensions with
China.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has created an online simulator which
allows the public to simulate how they would tackle the federal budget
deficit. 81
percent of respondents chose to decrease U.S. troop levels, while 75
percent of respondents support a reduction in shipbuilding.
Legislative: House
Budget Committee Chairman Paul
Ryan (R-WI) has introduced H.R.4966, the Sequester Replacement Act of 2012,
which would prevent the majority of sequestration cuts in Fiscal Year 2013 and
lower the total discretionary spending cap for FY13 by $19 billion to conform to
the recently passed House budget resolution.
Ryan is also in the process of crafting a deficit reduction package,
which will be called the Sequester Replacement Reconciliation Act and will draw
on savings recommendations issued by six standing committees under the
reconciliation process. This savings package
is intended to replace the sequestration cuts scheduled to take place next
year. The House Budget Committee is
expected to report out the legislation on May 7, and the package could hit the
House Floor later that week. For more on
the deficit reduction package’s contents, click here.
The House Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense is
expected to hold its markup of the annual defense appropriations bill either
the week of May 7 or May 14. The House
Armed Services Committee is expected
to markup the National Defense Authorization Act on May 9. The bill would provide $554 billion in Function
050 discretionary spending, which is roughly $4 billion above the President’s
budget request, and around $8 billion above the cap instituted by the Budget
Control Act.
Project on Defense Alternatives Perspective: While
speaking at the Stimson Center this week, the head of the Air Force, Gen.
Norton Schwartz, warned that the quickest way to a hollow force was to maintain
current force structure while providing the services with less funding. “If you give us force structure back, give us
the money, too, because the quickest way I know to a hollow force is to give us
structure and no money. It’s simple as that.”
PDA co-director Charles Knight notes that Gen. Schwartz is playing
to both sides of the aisle when he warns HASC against hollowing the force by
not accepting force structure reductions called for in the White House’s FY13
budget, and then says, “Give us the money” if the Republican controlled House
insists on disallowing the cuts. Of
course, Schwartz is not responsible for keeping government spending within the
budget caps that Democrats and Republicans together have decided to impose on
spending. In fact, he only represents
the interests of the Air Force. Maybe Schwartz
would recommend paying for those HASC plus-ups for the Air Force by cutting a
ship or two from the Navy’s budget? I am
sure he’d never say that out loud, but that is one reasonable implication of
his comments.
Highlights
U.S. News and World Report: 6
Reasons America Is Safer Under Obama
Larry Korb explores six reasons why President Obama has made the United
States safer since taking office, including bin Laden’s death as well as the
redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq.
Korb also asserts that Obama’s surge in Afghanistan has shown positive
results (though some would disagree)
and that the President has been able to significantly constrain Iran’s ability
to advance its nuclear program. (5/2/12)
Project on Government Oversight: A
Response to the Navy's "Vigorous Defense" of the Littoral Combat Ship
A letter sent by POGO last week to the heads of the Armed Services
Committees raising concerns about the troubled Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program
has caused quite a stir on Capitol Hill prompting
the Navy to respond with “uncharacteristic alacrity.” As a result, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), a
member of HASC, has added an amendment to the National Defense Authorization
Act to increase reporting requirement for the LCS. And the Chairman and Ranking Member of SASC
have officially
requested that GAO conduct a report on the LCS. (5/1/12)
Foreign Policy: The
Jet That Ate the Pentagon
Winslow Wheeler highlights ongoing problems with the F-35 Joint
Strike Fighter program, including its skyrocketing cost, schedule delays, and
poor performance. According to a
recently released GAO report,
the JSF program is expected to consume 38 percent of “future procurement
funding needed,” which is “enough to fund the remaining procurement costs of
the next 15 largest programs.” (4/26/12)
Other News and Commentary
Battleland: The
Pentagon’s Million-Dollar Aviation Plan
Winslow Wheeler analyzes the Pentagon’s
long-term aviation plan and finds that it does not begin to address the
fundamental challenges of an “aging, shrinking, less-trained force,” all at an
increasing price. (5/1/12)
A new GAO
report raises concern about the pace of F-22 upgrades currently taking
place. GAO estimates that by the time
all of the F-22s have been fully modernized, a large number of the aircraft
will have already flown 20 percent of their total service lives.
(5/1/12)
Last week, the House
Armed Services moved to block the Defense Department’s proposals to decommission
the Global Hawk Block 30 drone fleet and make reductions in the Air National
Guard. Responding to these developments,
the head of the Air Force, Gen. Norton Schwartz, warned that the quickest way
to a hollow force was to maintain current force structure while providing the
services with less funding. “If you give
us force structure back, give us the money, too, because the quickest way I
know to a hollow force is to give us structure and no money. It’s simple as
that,” Schwartz proclaimed to the audience at the Stimson Center. (5/1/12)
Defense News: U.S.
Funds May Have Helped Iraq Insurgents: Report
A report
published by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction has found
that some of the $4 billion in funding for the Commander’s Emergency Response Program
(CERP) likely was dispersed to insurgents and corrupt local officials. (5/1/12)
The Lexington Institute’s Loren Thompson analyzes the current
ballistic missile threats to the United States and finds that the most
threatening states that possess ballistic missile technology do not have the
range or technological sophistication to threaten the United States
homeland. (5/1/12)
Washington Post: Sorting
through the defense distortions
Walter Pincus points out some of the inaccuracies presented by one
of Governor Mitt Romney’s key national security advisors, John Lehman. On a recent conference call, Lehman accused
the Obama Administration of proposing nuclear reductions that would bring the
U.S. arsenal down to 300 weapons (which it has not) and claimed that the White House’s
most recent budget submission proposed cutting defense spending by $1 trillion
(which it did not). (4/30/12)
In past years, controversial provisions on Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell
and the detention of terrorist suspects has slowed passage of the National
Defense Authorization Act, however, HASC Chairman Buck McKeon (R-CA) is
optimistic that this year’s NDAA can be completed on time before the
election. But because McKeon’s bill will
likely be almost $8 billion above the Senate version, reconciling the two
pieces of legislation could prove difficult.
(4/29/12)
Defense News: U.S.
House Aims To Reverse Defense Cuts
The administration’s FY13 budget begins the process of saving
close to $500 billion from previously planned spending levels as mandated by
the Budget Control Act. Despite having voted
for this law, Chairman Buck McKeon and fellow GOP members of the committee have
blocked several savings proposals, including termination of the Global Hawk
Block 30 drone, reductions in Abrams upgrades, and a decrease in the number of
ballistic missile submarines. (4/29/12)
National Interest: The Fog of More
Jonathan E. Hillman laments the fact that the United States has
not learned the lessons of the Vietnam War, namely that throwing more money and
resources at an unwinnable war is futile and distracts policymakers and the
public from burgeoning problems at home.
Ultimately, Hillman recommends a rebalancing of America’s foreign policy:
“Instead of hawkishness, toughness must mean resiliency: the ability to take a
blow, take a breath and react accordingly. Strength must mean confidence—in our
unrivaled military capabilities, the durability of our democracy, and our
willingness to suffer any hardship and pay any price to defend vital U.S.
interests.” (4/30/12)
Battleland: Why
To Cancel A Pentagon Procurement Program
Air Force acquisition officer, Lt. Col. Dan Ward, identifies three
metrics to evaluate whether the Pentagon should proceed with a weapons system
program: affordability, necessity, and efficacy. Using these three metrics, Ward compares the
proposed cancellation of the C-27J cargo plane with the F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter and asks the question, “If the Spartan is an unaffordable luxury at
$2B, it does beg the question of the JSF’s affordability at $395B. We can
afford the expensive one but not the cheap one?” (4/27/12)
Early Warning Blog: The
Sound Of Future Base Closures Getting Louder And Closer
Despite serious Congressional opposition to a new round of
domestic base closures, Daniel Goure asserts that there is serious excess in
domestic military infrastructure. Goure
predicts, “What are only noises at this moment will soon become a loud and
incessant drumbeat for reducing the Pentagon’s infrastructure and particularly
cutting the number of depots and maintenance centers.” (4/27/12)
Although the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces
only met for 10 minutes to mark up its portion of the National Defense
Authorization Act, statements submitted for the record shine light on potential
upcoming conflicts over nuclear weapons and missile defense. In her submitted statement, ranking member
Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) raised concerns about increases in funding for nuclear
weapons and the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) missile defense
program. (4/26/12)
Reports
Government Accountability Office:
F-22A
Modernization Program Faces Cost, Technical, and Sustainment Risks (5/2/12)
Special Inspector General for
Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR): Quarterly
Report to United States Congress
(4/30/12)
Congressional Research Service: Budget “Sequestration” and
Selected Program Exemptions and Special Rules (4/27/12)
Congressional Budget Office: FY
2013 Senate Current Status of Discretionary Appropriations (4/26/12)
Congressional Research Service: Cybersecurity: Authoritative
Reports and Resources (4/26/12)
Congressional Research Service: Foreign Assistance to North
Korea (4/26/12)
Department of Defense: Report
on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan: United States Plan
for Sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces (April,
2012)
RAND Corporation: U.S.
Military Information Operations in Afghanistan Effectiveness of Psychological
Operations 2001–2010 (April, 202)
Government Accountability Office:
Comparison of
F-22A and Legacy Fighter Modernization Programs (4/26/12)
Committee for a Responsible
Federal Budget: Americans
Tackle the Debt Assessing the Results of CRFB’s Budget Simulator (4/26/12)
Congressional Research Service: The
Budget Control Act of 2011: The Effects on Spending and
the Budget Deficit When the Automatic Spending Cuts Are Implemented (4/26/12)
Department of Defense: Annual
Aviation Inventory and Funding Plan Fiscal Years 2013-2042 (March, 2012)
