State of Play
Executive: Defense Secretary Panetta has confirmed that the department will begin doing “some”
planning for sequestration by “mid to late summer” in order to prepare for the
possibility of automatic cuts scheduled to take effect at the beginning of next
year. The military services are
currently under orders not to begin planning for sequestration until given the
go-ahead by the Office of Management and Budget. Panetta also warned
recently that if Congress blocks the proposed termination of six weapons
systems and modernization programs contained in the FY13 budget request, then
the department will be forced to find $9.6 billion in savings elsewhere in the
national security budget.
The Army is preparing
to replace its fleet of C-12 Hurons with a new “Future Fix Winged Aircraft,”
to provide transportation, intelligence, and reconnaissance capabilities. The Navy’s top weapons buyer told attendees
at the Navy League’s annual Sea, Air, Space conference that the service
would like to enter into multi-year Virginia-class submarine and Arleigh
Burke class destroyer contracts in order to reap enough savings to purchase an
additional destroyer. Meanwhile, Senate
Appropriations Committee Chairman Daniel Inouye (D-HI) expressed concerns about
the Navy’s shipbuilding plan, which foresees decreasing the number of planned ballistic-missile-capable
warships in the fleet from 43 to 36.
Inouye may try to revise the administration’s proposal to retire seven
cruisers, six of which were slated to receive BMD upgrades.
Inside Defense reports
that the F-35’s fourth production run could be more than half a billion dollars
higher than what was expected, a 12.5 percent increase, due to deficiencies and
problems discovered during the F-35’s trial runs. The United Kingdom has reversed course and
decided to proceed` with procurement of the F-35B STOVL variant of the Joint
Strike Fighter instead of the F-35C variant.
Reportedly,
the decision came after costs estimates revealed that outfitting the U.K.’s two
forthcoming aircraft carriers with catapult launch and recovery systems would
cost around $2.85 billion. Interestingly,
the British recently sold the United States spare parts for its jump-jet
Harriers, which the Navy
now says will extend the life of the fleet until 2030. Defense
Tech’s John Reed notes that the F-35B variant was supposed to have already
replaced the United States’ Harrier fleet.
Reed
also shared some photos this week of Boeing’s concept model for its sixth
generation carrier-based strike fighter, which was on display at the Sea, Air,
Space conference. The Navy released a market survey
this week soliciting industry input on candidates for the F/A-XX aircraft,
which will fly from carriers alongside the F-35 and a new ISR drone, currently
called the X-47B.
The Truman National Security Project has published the spring 2012
edition of its Security
Briefing Book, which helps progressives grapple with national security and
international affairs challenges. Click
here for the chapter on the military budget. The
Hill’s Carlo Munoz reports
that a long-term security pact between the United States and Afghanistan could
be completed in advance of a NATO summit scheduled for May. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says
he wants included in the agreement guarantees that the United States will
provide at least $1-2 billion annually in security assistance, although the
U.S. says the agreement is not meant to be an aid package and SASC Chairman
Carl Levin (D-MI) characterized
the request as “reaching beyond what’s realistic.” Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker
warned that leaving Afghanistan prematurely could “set
the stage for another 9/11.”
Instability across north Africa has been in the headlines
recently: coup leaders in Mali have handed over control of the west African
nation to the head of its legislature, a coup
has occurred in the perennially unstable Guinea-Bissau, and troop
mobilizations and attacks
along the border between Sudan and South Sudan have led to concerns that the two
nations are headed toward conflict. The British Ministry of Defence reports that
a team
of multinational weapons experts have secured and dismantled 5,000 Libyan
man-operated portable defense systems (MANPADS); however an estimated 15,000
additional systems may have fallen into the hands of regional militias or
terrorists.
Legislative: HASC
Chairman Buck McKeon (R-CA) has written
Secretary Panetta to express concern about a recently inked deal between
the United States and Afghanistan, in which some control over controversial
night raids will be shifted to the Afghans, although analysts
have called the deal symbolic in nature.
McKeon says he’s troubled that “the new framework could also potentially
compromise sensitive U.S. information since more Afghans will be involved in
sensitive intelligence activities and operational planning.” Separately, non-HASC House members have expressed
opposition to the Air Force’s plans to cut National Guard personnel and
wings stationed in their states.
House Committees have begun marking up
deficit reduction legislation mandated by reconciliation instructions
included in the House budget resolution.
Six committees, excluding the Armed Services, must report out
recommendations totaling $261 billion in savings, which are expected to be
packaged into legislation and brought to the House Floor next month. Retiring Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad
(D-ND) has marked up a budget resolution modeled
in part on the Bowles-Simpson deficit reduction plan. Conrad had been expected to call a committee
vote on the resolution; however bowing to pressure from Senate leadership, Conrad
has indefinitely delayed a final committee vote. The Chairman has already filed a “deeming”
resolution which set the Senate’s total discretionary spending limit at the
amount set in law by the Budget Control Act last August. And the head of OMB has written
House Appropriations Chair Harold Rogers (R-KY) warning that unless House
Republicans abide by discretionary spending caps set in law by the Budget
Control Act, then President Obama will not sign forthcoming appropriations
bills.
Project on Defense Alternatives’
Perspective: The Congressional Budget Office has published an infographic that
breaks down into further detail discretionary spending in 2011. The infographic shows that defense spending
received the largest share of discretionary spending in 2011, roughly $699
billion. In a recent memo, Carl Conetta showed that defense will
receive a larger share of discretionary spending in 2013 than it did in 2008,
up from 50 percent to 52 percent.
This week, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI) hosted an event to discuss their forthcoming publication SIPRI Yearbook 2012: Armaments, Disarmament
and International Security, which compares and analyzes military
expenditures internationally. The
forthcoming report shows that world military spending grew by just 0.3 percent
from 2010 to 2011, which marks the first time in thirteen years that worldwide
military spending has not increased significantly. The report also shows that U.S. military
expenditures will have decreased from 2010 to 2011 by 1.2 percent, the first
reduction in U.S. military spending since 1998.
Earlier this year, PDA published a report which
examined the growth in U.S. defense spending since 1998, which found that,
while the administration’s FY13 budget request represents a small decline in requested
spending, it does not begin to erase the significant growth experienced since the
late 1990s.
Highlights
Center for American Progress: Protecting
Wasteful Military Spending at All Costs
CAP has released a chart which compares the costs of military
weapons systems funded in the House Budget Resolution with cuts to social
services and health care programs. (4/18/12)
Spencer Ackerman reports on the Navy’s new quest to develop a
replacement for the F/A-18 Super Hornet.
Ackerman wonders aloud whether the F/A-XX is meant to hedge against
further delays or problems in the Joint Strike Fighter (which the Navy vehemently
denies) or whether there will be redundancy since both aircraft would be
performing similar missions. (4/17/12)
Defense News: 2011
World Military Spending Leveled Out: Report
SIPRI will soon release its annual SIPRI Yearbook 2012: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security
report, which finds that worldwide military expenditures totaled $1.738
trillion in 2011, a slight increase of 0.3 percent from the previous year. U.S. military expenditures fell by 1.2
percent in 2011, the first decrease since 1998.
SIPRI predicts that U.S. defense expenditures will continue to decline
in the near-term due to domestic angst over the budget deficit as well as the
conclusion of major contingency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. (4/17/12)
Other News and Commentary
National Defense: U-2,
Global Hawk Advocates Square Off in Budget Battle
Eric Beidel analyzes the decision by the Air Force to mothball its
fleet of Global Hawk drones in favor of the U-2 Dragon Lady for estimated
savings of $2.5 billion over five years.
Beidel analyzes the per-unit cost and payload capacity of the U-2,
Global Hawk, and Avenger UAV. (May, 2012)
AOL Defense: Modular
'Trucks' Will Rule The Waves: CNO
Instead of designing a new aircraft or ship to carry a specific
new technology, the head of the Navy, Admiral Jonathan Greenert, says the
service will continue to modularize existing platforms to carry emerging
technologies. Examples of modularization
include the Marine Corps’ Harvest Hawk and the Air Force’s Dragon Spear
programs, which outfit C-130 Hercules with offensive capabilities. (4/18/12)
Center for Strategic and International
Studies: Forging a
Consensus on a Sustainable U.S. Nuclear Posture
In a new CSIS report, Clark Murdock and John Warden warn that
reductions in nuclear modernization funding may prevent the administration from
further reducing the U.S. nuclear arsenal beyond what was agreed to in the New START
treaty. The authors argue that an evolving
global security environment requires the United States to find consensus on its
own nuclear deterrence strategy. (4/17/12)
National Defense: USS
Ford On Track But Far From Finished
Dan Parsons reports on the construction progress of the next CVN
aircraft carrier, the U.S.S. Gerald Ford, which is $1 billion over cost and
only 38 percent complete. The carrier is expected to launch next
year, but won’t be delivered to the Navy until 2015. (4/17/12)
Battleland: Hardware
v. People
Building off a column
by Nicholas Kristof, Chuck Spinney condemns the Military-Industrial-Congressional-Complex
that prioritizes expensive weapons programs over personnel. Spinney writes, “The proper order of priority
in any military force should always be People, Ideas, Hardware, in that order.”
(4/17/12)
An upcoming study by the RAND Corporation examined costs incurred
in four Air Force fleets that use a mix of Active Duty, Reserve, and National
Guard units and has found that “cost-minimizing mix in three of the four fleets
would have been tilted more toward the active component,” calling “into
question the reserve components' long-held assumption that their units are the
least expensive alternative in any force structure consideration.” (4/16/12)
New York Times: NATO
Sees Flaws in Air Campaign Against Qaddafi
Despite the fact that analysts and commentators widely view the
NATO operation in Libya as the new model for international intervention, a
classified NATO report has found that the alliance relied disproportionately on
American intelligence, planning, analysis, reconnaissance and aerial
refueling. The report throws cold water
on the notion that NATO can intervene in Syria without relying heavily on
American logistical support. (4/15/12)
National Journal: Do
the Brass Support the Obama Defense Budget?
In his monthly blog post on National
Journal, Kevin Baron explores Republicans’ assertion that the Pentagon’s
top brass doesn’t support President Obama’s FY13 budget request and concludes
that DOD’s top generals have long foreseen declining budgets, however, there is
dissent amongst lower-level commanders and program managers. (4/13/12)
New York Times: Toward
a World Without Nukes
Former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and former Senator Sam
Nunn suggest that the meeting of NATO leaders in Chicago this May provides an
important opportunity to build upon the foundations laid by the Deterrence and
Defense Posture Review, with an eye toward reducing U.S. tactical nuclear
weapons in Europe. The pair notes that,
in order to be successful, the process must avoid alienating Russia. (4/13/12)
Following a recent fatal V-22 crash in Morocco, Richard Whittle
compares the Osprey’s safety record with that of other conventional
helicopters, and notes that the services have only lost two V-22 aircraft over
the past 12 years, while 411 conventional helicopters have crashed during the
same period. As a result of the Morocco
accident, the V-22 is no longer considered the Marine Corps’ “safest”
helicopter. Meanwhile, the V-22’s
program manager at Naval Air Systems Command says
the V-22 is being considered for addition to the Presidential HMX-1 helicopter
squadron as a staff and gear transport aircraft. (4/13/12)
Talking Points Memo: Barney
Frank Unloads On The ‘Great Scam’ Of Paul Ryan
Rep. Barney Frank had some choice words for House Budget Chairman
Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) recently passed budget resolution, saying, “It’s not deficit
reduction when you increase military spending so that you can make up for that
by cutting Medicare and Medicaid. That’s not budget reduction. That’s
ideology.” (4/12/12)
Reports
Congressional Budget Office: A
Closer Look at Discretionary Spending (4/14/12)
Government Accountability Office:
Defense Health
Care: Applying Key Management Practices Should Help Achieve Efficiencies within
the Military Health System (4/12/12)
Congressional Research Service: The Lord’s Resistance Army:
The U.S. Response (4/11/12)
Congressional Research Service: Kuwait: Security, Reform,
and U.S. Policy (4/11/12)
Congressional Research Service: Pakistan: U.S. Foreign
Assistance (4/10/12)
Center for American Progress: Strengthening
America's Options on Iran: Ten Key Questions to Inform the Debate (April,
2012)
Truman National Security Project:
Truman
Security Briefing Book (Spring,
2012)
Department of Defense: Joint Electromagnetic
Spectrum Management Operations (March 20, 2012)
Events
At 9:00 am on Tuesday, April 25, in B340 Rayburn House Office
Building, the Institute for Economics and Peace will release the 2012 United States Peace Index, which
ranks metropolitan areas by their peacefulness and analyzes the socioeconomic
factors associated with peace.
