State of Play
Legislative: House
Armed Services subcommittees have begun marking up the Fiscal Year 2013
national defense authorization bill, with
a full committee markup expected May 9.
Chairman Buck McKeon (R-CA) will
reportedly set the topline figure for the national defense authorization
act at $554 billion. A draft provision would
shut off funding for the last stage of the Medium Extended Air Defense System,
for which the administration has requested $400 million in FY13. A draft
version of the seapower portion of the NDAA would authorize
the Navy to purchase one additional destroyer and one additional Virginia-class
submarine over the next five years, while requiring the Pentagon to maintain a minimum
of twelve ballistic missile submarines at all times. The draft
version of the NDAA personnel section would rebuff the administration’s
attempt to decommission the fleet of Global Hawk Block 30 drones and reject the
Pentagon’s proposal to shift funding for Marine Corps personnel into the OCO
account. For a complete listing of the
draft portions of the NDAA, click here. Following the services’ refusal to submit
unfunded priorities lists (also known as “wish lists”) to Congress this year, Rep.
Duncan Hunter is preparing to offer an amendment to the national defense
authorization act to require the services to annually submit such lists. And Congressional Republicans continue
to express alarm over the impact of defense reductions on shipyards and
associated businesses in their states.
Meanwhile, the House Appropriations Committee has set its 302(b)
allocations, which determine how discretionary spending is appropriated across
the federal government. House
Republicans plan on providing
$519.2 billion for the Department of Defense in FY13, which is $8 billion
less than the Senate will appropriate. The
Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development held a markup
of its annual spending bill this week, which would provide $11.5 billion
for the National Nuclear Security Administration, which is $511 million more
than the agency received last year.
Funding plus-ups would be provided for weapons activities (to extend the
life of several nuclear weapons systems) and for development of new nuclear
reactors for the Navy’s Ohio-class submarine.
House GOP leaders plan on bringing the first appropriations bill to the
House Floor during the week of May 7.
Executive: The Air
Force is moving
forward with plans to mothball its fleet of C-27J cargo plans even though
Congress has yet to approve the move and two key senators, the chairman and
ranking member of SASC, have urged the Pentagon not to advance new policies
that have not been approved by Congress and could be difficult to reverse. The Coast
Guard is expected to formally request the transfer of the Air Force’s C-27J
fleet as an alternative to decommissioning.
Following the proposed cancellation of the Common Vertical Lift Support
System, an aircraft program that was meant to replace the UH-1N Huey, the Air Force
is now planning on upgrading the Huey fleet so that they can fly for an
additional thirty years. And according
to a report provided to Congress by the Pentagon last month, the KC-46 aerial
refueling tanker program will cost $276 million more than was previously
estimated. The total cost of the
next-generation tanker program now stands at an estimated $51.9 billion, which represents
a one percent increase from last fall’s projections.
The Office of Management and Budget has notified
GAO that Department of Veterans Affairs’ (VA) programs will be exempt from
sequestration cuts set to take effect at the beginning of next year. It turns out that the PAYGO Act, passed in
2010, amended the 1985 Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act to
explicitly exempt VA programs from sequestration cuts. And the Congressional Budget Office has
prepared a resource page on
the budgetary impact of the Budget Control Act.
Project on Defense Alternatives’ Perspective: The United States and Afghanistan have agreed to a draft ten-year
security pact that will govern military relations between the two countries
following the official end of U.S. military operations (other than Special Ops
and CIA ops) in 2014. Charles Knight, co-director of PDA, wonders what
the ten-year agreement portends for future emergency war funding; “Will the
next administration continue to budget for Afghanistan using the Overseas
Contingency Operations (OCO) account post-2014? Might the next
administration institutionalize the OCO account as a means of supporting select
U.S. foreign engagements?” Knight and the Cato Institute’s Benjamin
Friedman recently wrote commentary in the National Interest on the use
(and abuse) of the OCO account and this administration’s FY13 proposal to cap
future war funding. You can read it here.
Highlights
Project on Government Oversight: POGO
Releases Navy Documents Showing Problems with the Littoral Combat Ship
This week, POGO sent a letter to the chairman and ranking member
of the House Armed Services Committee highlighting serious problems with the
Navy’s $120 billion Littoral Combat Ship program, of which two ships have been
fielded. The letter points out that the
two ships have been “"plagued by flawed designs and failed equipment since
being commissioned, has at least 17 known cracks, and has repeatedly been beset
by engine-related failures." The
Navy was quick to respond to the allegations in
writing. (4/23/12)
Army Times: U.S.
plans for larger presence in Pacific
While rejecting the notion that China is the United States’ new
Cold War enemy, the Navy is planning to increase its assets in the Asia Pacific
region consistent with the Pentagon’s new Strategic Guidance. Currently, the Navy splits its fleet with 55
percent of it focused in the Pacific and 45 percent in the Atlantic. Navy Secretary Ray Mabus says this will
likely shift toward a 60/40 split between the Pacific and Atlantic. (4/21/12)
The administration has insisted that sequestration will apply equally
to each line item, potentially devastating the Navy’s shipbuilding
accounts. However, the Congressional
Research Service’s (CRS) Naval expert, Ron O’Rourke, says there may be
alternative interpretations of the law whereby cuts would be applied to much
broader categories. (4/20/12)
Battleland: Defense
Budgets: The “Drole de Guerre”
Gordon Adams argues that little will be known or decided about
sequestration until after the November election, but even if sequestration were
to occur, it would still leave “the American military with a capability that
exceeds anybody else in the world for decades to come (yes, that includes
China), including the size of the Navy.”
(4/19/12)
Other News and Commentary
Washington Post: House
skirmish over defense spending begins
Walter Pincus reports on the differences between the President’s
proposed defense budget, House defense appropriations, and Senate defense
appropriations. The House defense
appropriations bill will be $8 billion above the defense cap implemented by the
Budget Control Act, while the President’s budget submission for defense is
roughly $3.7 billion above the cap set in law.
(4/25/12)
Battleland: How
Not to Buy Weapons
A recent GAO report
examined problems in the concurrency development of the Ground-Based Midcourse
Defense (GMD) missile defense system and found that “concurrency resulted in
unexpected cost increases, schedule delays, test problems, and performance
shortfalls.” GAO also points out that
GMD flight testing is not expected to be completed until 2022, well after
production of the GMD interceptors has been completed. For more on concurrency from Battleland, click
here. (4/25/12)
New York Times: Air
National Guard Lobbies Successfully Against Budget Cuts
Bowing to pressure from Congress and a group of governors,
Secretary Panetta has modified some of the administration’s proposed reductions
to the Air National Guard. The Guard had
originally been slated to lose 5,000 personnel and some 200 aircraft; however,
under the modified plan it will regain some 2,200 positions and 24 C-130 cargo
planes at a cost of $400 million. (4/24/12)
New York Times: Defense
Department Plans New Intelligence Gathering Service
Last week, Secretary Panetta approved plans for a new intelligence
service, the Defense Clandestine Service, which will work closely in
conjunction with the CIA. The new agency
is designed to synthesize the efforts of military and spy agencies at a time
when they are increasingly focused on similar threats. A senior Defense Department official referred
to the new agency as part of a “realignment” that will “thicken our coverage
across the board.” (4/23/12)
Small Wars Journal: Empire
at War: The Effects of the War on Terrorism on the American Middle Class
SWJ blogger
Chris Davis argues that the financial burden of the Global War on Terror has
disproportionately fallen on America’s middle class. Davis asserts that since 2001, the war on
terror has cost as much as $8 trillion, which equates to $70,000 for each
American household. (4/23/12)
Washington Examiner: Pulling
out of expensive war will be costly, officials say
The Pentagon estimates that it will cost $5-10 billion to
transport military equipment out of Afghanistan in 2014, which is further
complicated by the fact that Pakistan has closed off the two main supply routes
in and out of Afghanistan. Pakistan says
that if it does ultimately reopen the supply routes (which
could happen soon), it will charge the United States millions of dollars to
use them. (4/23/12)
Washington Post: Toss
out the all-volunteer military
In an op-ed published in the Washington
Post, Tom Ricks argues that an all-volunteer force has made it “all too
easy to go to war,” and that a return to mandatory conscription would shorten
the duration of American contingency operations and force leaders to more
heavily weigh the benefits and drawbacks of armed conflict. For a more libertarian-oriented position on
the draft, you can read Paul Pillar’s response to Ricks’ piece here. (4/22/12)
Washington Post: Why
we need more accountability in Afghanistan
Boston University professor and retired Army Colonel Andrew
Bacevich explains what he sees as a lapse in the military ethic of greater
responsibility with greater authority. Bacevich
cites the disturbing precedent set by the mismanagement of the Iraq conflict by
Gen. Tommy Franks in 2003. Citing numerous examples of barbarism for which only
the lowest ranks received punishment, Bacevich concludes there has been a
fundamental break in the Army’s accountability structure for low level
misconduct and he suggests a shake-up at the highest levels to keep generals on
edge. (4/20/12)
The Will and the Wallet:
Summing Up the Senate's 302(b)s
Russell Rumbaugh explains how Senate appropriators are dealing
with the discretionary spending caps placed in law by the Budget Control
Act. Though the Budget Control Act set
overall discretionary spending caps, House and Senate appropriators must divide
the funding amongst 12 subcommittees through what are known as 302(b)
allocations. While the House budget
resolution completely ignored the statutory distinction between defense and
non-defense appropriations, the Senate seems to be hewing closer to the
law. (4/20/12)
DoD Buzz: Tomorrow’s
‘reconstituted’ Marine Corps
In 2011, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates cancelled the
Marine Corps’ Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV), an over-budget,
controversial amphibious assault launch vehicle meant to replace the aging
AAV-71. Despite the program’s
termination, the Marine Corps insists it must develop a replacement vehicle,
prompting Philip Ewing to point out that “The Marines are in a pickle because
they want to replace the EFV with something like the EFV — an amphibious APC
that can speed ashore — but it can’t be so much like the EFV that it too
succumbs to problems, delays and cost growth.”
(4/20/12)
National Interest: Romney’s
National-Security Problem
Christopher Preble analyzes Gov. Mitt Romney’s foreign policy and
national security positions and finds that they’re woefully out of touch with
the American public. Romney supports
extending the U.S. war in Afghanistan (even though public support for the war
is plummeting) and wants to vastly increase defense spending even though he has
not outlined a plan to pay for a Pentagon budget that is four percent of
GDP. (4/19/12)
Reports
Government Accountability Office:
Missile
Defense: Opportunities Exist to Strengthen Acquisitions by Reducing Concurrency
and Improving Parts Quality (4/25/12)
Government Accountability Office:
Urgent
Warfighter Needs: Opportunities Exist to Expedite Development and Fielding of
Joint Capabilities (4/24/12)
Government Accountability Office:
Cybersecurity:
Threats Impacting the Nation (4/24/12)
Congressional Research Service:
FY2013 Defense Budget
Request: Overview and Context (4/20/12)
Government Accountability Office:
Missile
Defense: Opportunity Exists to Strengthen Acquisitions by Reducing Concurrency (4/20/12)
Congressional Research Service: Army Drawdown and
Restructuring: Background and Issues for Congress (4/20/12)
Congressional Budget Office: The
Economic Impact of the President’s 2013 Budget (4/20/12)
Congressional Research Service:
Iraq: Politics,
Governance, and Human Rights (4/19/12)
Government Accountability Office:
DOD Financial
Management: Challenges in Attaining
Audit Readiness and Improving Business Processes and Systems (4/18/12)
Department of the Army: Policy
Guidance on the Assessment and Treatment of Post-Traumatic Brain Disorder
(PTSD) (4/10/12)
Congressional Budget Office: The
Economic Impact of the President’s 2013 Budget (April, 2012)
Departments of Defense and State:
Report
to Congress on Section 1248 of the National Defense Authorization Act for
Fiscal Year 2010 (April, 2012)
Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments: Changing
the Game: The Promise of Directed-Energy Weapons (2012)
Events
5/1/12 Stimson Center: Chairman’s Forum with
Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, Chief of Staff of the US Air Force
On May 1 at 12:30 pm, the Chairman of the Stimson Center is
hosting Gen. Norton Schwartz for an informal discussion about the most relevant
issues facing the United States today.
Click here
to RSVP.
