Thursday, August 15, 2013

8/15/13 RD Bulletin: Major COCOM Consolidation Under Consideration



Highlights

News: Though the Obama administration has restarted fiscal negotiations with Senate Republicans, the chances for a grand bargain deal remain elusive at best.  In the absence of such a deal, Senator Barbara Mikulski, the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, is floating the idea of a two-year sequester delay

News: Defense News reports that the Pentagon is considering consolidating its regional unified commands, which could result in the elimination of two commands and five thousand associated personnel.

PDA Perspective: In this week’s guest perspective, Georgetown University’s Don Daniel outlines the potential strategic benefits of sequestration.

State of Play


During President Barack Obama’s campaign for the White House last year, he forcefully committed to ending sequestration and working with Republicans to forge a ‘grand bargain’ deficit reduction package.  Just last week, the President stood before an audience of active duty military personnel and repeated his vow to end sequestration in its entirety.

Despite his dogged commitment, the President offered no new details as to how he would potentially forge a compromise budget deal with Republicans to avert the automatic cuts.  And despite the President’s optimism over passing a deal, the Joint Chiefs of Staff seem resigned to declining budgets for the foreseeable future.  Last week, deputy secretary Ashton Carter said the Pentagon will continue to search for ways to save money even if sequestration is nullified.  In fact, in the coming weeks, senior military officials will unveil a $50 billion savings plan comprised primarily of reforms to compensation, housing, and health care.

Although there is little sign of optimism emerging from the Pentagon, Defense News’ John Bennett reports that senior Republicans and White House officials have again begun talks aimed at crafting a budget compromise.  As Bennett explains, “the foundation for a possible fiscal deal is being laid not by Obama and congressional leaders, but by compromise-minded Senate Republicans and White House staffers eager to hand their boss a domestic policy feat that would be rivaled only by the passage of his controversial health care reform law.”

And though Congressional Democrats may be left out of the closed-door negotiations, Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) announced recently that he is working with Senator John McCain (R-AZ) on a revenue proposal that could generate $100 billion by closing tax loopholes.  Levin’s intent is for the $100 billion to be used to replace a portion of the sequester cuts.  The senator has previously floated the idea of culling $100 billion from the nuclear weapons budget.

Perhaps acknowledging that the chances for a long-term budget deal remain elusive at best, Senate Appropriations Chair Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) recently proposed putting off sequestration for two years – either by delaying the cuts or replacing them with savings from elsewhere in the federal budget.  Still, long-time budget analyst Stan Collender says that the chances for a big budget deal are nil, and that even Mikulski’s proposal faces an up-hill battle: “Even a mini bargain ... won’t fly in the House of Representatives… Here’s a secret: It’s not likely to fly in the Senate, either,” Collender recently blogged.
 

Executive

For the better part of this year, the Pentagon has been warning that the twin pinch of operating under a Continuing Resolution combined with sequestration would require the department to furlough hundreds of thousands of civilian employees, which in turn could imperil America’s national security.  After months of progressively ratcheting down the number of days those civilian employees would lose work, the Pentagon has announced that it is ending furloughs for the remainder of Fiscal Year 2013.  Ultimately, with Congress’s approval and assistance, the Pentagon has been able to shore up operations and maintenance accounts by reprogramming funding from war-related accounts and acquisition programs.

The Pentagon also has used similar budgeting tactics to protect high-priority weapons systems from sequestration, including the troubled F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.  However, the Project on Government Oversight’s Winslow Wheeler cautions that the Pentagon has not yet revealed how many F-35s will be cut, and may be engaging in fantastical thinking if it believes that the program can escape sequestration unscathed: “Despite speculation that five to ten (more likely the later) aircraft will fall out of the 2013 buy, DOD has refused to say how many. Unless budget-bargaining lightning strikes, there will also be a sequester in 2014. Given the disruption to the program in 2013 resulting from the sequester, which DOD has not yet acknowledged, the impact on the 2014 buy is very difficult to predict. In any case, the expectation of 29 F-35 purchases in 2014 and from 36 to 42 in 2015 is looking more and more fanciful,” Wheeler recently told Breaking Defense. 
As a result of reprogramming and transferring funds, the Pentagon has blunted the argument that sequestration entails a ‘salami-slicing’ of the defense budget, in which all programs and accounts suffer the same percentage cut.  Instead, the Pentagon is now demonstrating its ability to prioritize certain long-term investments while shifting funding away from relic systems and those that do not contribute to U.S. national security.  Still, pressure will only continue to mount on the Pentagon’s acquisition budget as, just recently, President Obama notified Congress that he will continue to exempt military personnel accounts from sequester cuts.
In fact, just two weeks ago, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel noted that if sequestration remains on the books, the United States would have to choose between a much smaller military and a decades-long “modernization holiday.”  Hagel’s deputy, Ash Carter, was much more blunt: “We can't rule out reductions in the civilian workforce and involuntary separations of military personnel… That's something none of us wants to do. But again if you have to have reductions this fast and this steep you have to go where it is possible to get money that fast.”

On July 31, Secretary Hagel mentioned that the Pentagon was considering consolidating combatant commands (COCOM), which provide command and control of U.S. military forces around the world.  While there is no official word from the Pentagon, Defense News’ Marcus Weisgerber reports that a number of consolidations and realignments could occur within the nine COCOMs.  Some specific options under consideration include combing Northern and Southern Commands into one ‘Western Command,’ eliminating the newly-created Africa Command, and expanding Pacific Command to include operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Weisgerber notes that in total the consolidations could result in the elimination of two COCOMs and 5,000 uniformed and civilian personnel.  In a 2011 article in Joint Forces Quarterly, retired Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor proposed a similar concept: compress the six regional unified commands into four for savings of approximately $100 billion.


 
Weapons

Due to sequestration, the Pentagon is taking offline a component of the current space fence, a system designed to track meteors as they pass through near-earth space.  The Air Force Space Surveillance System will be taken offline by October 1 for annual projected savings of $14 million.  The Air Force defended the decision to close the component – pointing to the fact that it is in the process of planning a replacement network of sensors, which will be based in the Marshall Islands.  However, the replacement space fence was one of the first victims of the recently completed Strategic Choices and Management Review.  As a result of the strategic review, the Air Force is delaying indefinitely awarding a contract for the replacement system.

For the second time this year, an Air Force missile unit in charge of operating Minutemen nuclear weapons has failed a safety and security test.  The latest safety failure involves the 341st Missile Wing, which includes around 3,000 personnel based in Montana.  The same air wing failed a similar inspection in 2008.  Earlier this year, a separate missile wing, based in South Dakota, flunked a safety inspection which led to the temporary suspension of seventeen airmen.

This past May, the Navy notified Congress that it is planning on extending the Virginia-class submarine program beyond its original 30-vessel buy.  According to Inside Defense, the Navy has programmed close to $600 million in Fiscal Year 2018 in order to help purchase an additional submarine in 2020.  In last year’s budget request, the Navy proposed stretching out the Virginia-class buy; however, after Congress requested an increase in production, the Navy reversed course.  The savings originally culled from stretching out the buy will now be programmed for the additional submarine in FY18.  A thirty-boat purchase is currently estimated to cost $92 billion.  It remains to be seen how sequestration will impact the Virginia-class program’s future.

Project on Defense Alternatives Perspective

In this week’s guest PDA Perspective, Georgetown University’s Professor Don Daniel argues that sequestration provides a strategic opportunity for the United States to reassess its global security posture.  An excerpt from Professor Daniel’s piece, “The Benefits of Sequester,” appears below. 

The adverse consequences of hangings and budgetary cutbacks preoccupy those who face them.  There may be no silver lining for those about to die, but there can be for those who must live with less.  Cutbacks can force evaluation of priorities and the slimming of organizations whose bloat clouds institutional concentration and hampers agility.  The DoD is one such organization: it has too many cooks concocting too many broths that either should be the responsibility of other elements of the US government or of no elements at all.   Thus, the sequester can be a blessing.

The DoD is like most organizations; if leaders do not have to make hard choices, they will avoid doing so.  Even the hard-nosed Donald Rumsfeld, a man with his own settled views, signed off on Quadrennial Defense Reviews that were criticized for their failure to provide the guidance necessary to choose between this or that entity, program, or provider of services.  But such guidance would probably have been superfluous; budgets after all were rising dramatically and (over)matching the increases in demands levied on the DoD.  The people asking the DoD to do more were understandably not interested in giving it less to do it with.


Ultimately, Daniel believes that sequestration will force a reevaluation of national priorities:

We are in a new era, and the sequester is nicely setting the scene to re-evaluate what we are about and how we should go about it.  From a top-down perspective, we need for our national leaders to explicitly call for a national discussion.  At the top of the agenda is the question: What are my country's requirements?


For the full text of Professor Daniel’s piece, click here. 
 
Professor Daniel teaches security studies at Georgetown University. Previously he was Special Assistant to the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and prior to that he held the Milton E. Miles Chair of International Relations at the US Naval War College, Newport, RI, where he also chaired the Strategic Research Department in the College’s Center for Naval Warfare Studies.

News and Commentary

 

Medium: America Does Not Need the Air Force – David Axe
“The United States military is all about redundancy; in addition to two armies, it also fields two navies — the Navy and the Coast Guard — and five or six air forces, depending on how you count the aerial arms of the various branches. The real problem isn’t that the Army is marginally more or less useful that it was 10 years ago, but rather that the institutions that were designed in 1947, when the Army and Air Force split, are insufficiently flexible to negotiate the modern security landscape. The fault for this lies not primarily with the Army, but with the United States Air Force, an institution built on the optimistic vision that ordnance delivered from the air could, cheaply and cleanly, bring about a peaceful, American-dominated world.”  (8/12/13) 

 
 
Danger Room: How to Fix the Army: Sack All the Generals – Alan McDuffee
“Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis doesn’t have faith in Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray Odierno. Or the rest of the U.S. Army’s generals, for that matter. Writing in the August issues of The Armed Forces Journal, Davis argues that it’s high time to sack the Army’s senior leaders for what he sees as an institutionalized epidemic of astonishing failures that not only go unreported, but are typically rewarded. All of it, he says, is creating a self-perpetuating culture of abysmal performance that won’t go away until the generals do. ‘Over that past 20 years, our senior leaders have amassed a record of failure in major organizational, acquisition and strategic efforts,’ Davis writes. ‘These failures have been accompanied by the hallmarks of an organization unable and unwilling to fix itself: aggressive resistance to the reporting of problems, suppression of failed test results, public declaration of success where none was justified, and the absence of accountability.’”  (8/12/13) 

 
 
Medium: The Air Force’s Awesome Attack Plane Has a Pretty Sad Replacement – Robert Beckusen
“The F-35 will eventually replace the A-10 and be tasked with carrying out the same ground-attack missions currently assigned to the Warthog. But the JSF just can’t do the job. Besides having a terrible view of the battlefield, the F-35 is also too fast and lightly built to loiter over a hot ambush zone — and its 25-millimeter gun comes with just 180 rounds, compared to the more than 1,100 bullets an A-10 carries. It’s worth pointing out that the two Warthogs over the Afghan battle apparently fired all their ammunition. ‘Note the actions the F-35 is incapable to perform,’ said Winslow Wheeler, director of the Straus Military Reform Project at the Project on Government Oversight in Washington, D.C. ‘Among them long time loiter, low altitude observation of the problem, multiple gun passes with extreme accuracy.’ These things saved American lives. The A-10’s replacement? Perhaps not.”  (8/12/13)

 
 
The Virginian-Pilot: Cutting aircraft carriers a real possibility – Mike Hixenbaugh
“Really? Mothballing aircraft carriers? The idea floated last week by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel seemed particularly shocking in this Navy town - home to half the nation's fleet of nuclear flattops, where carrier deployments and homecomings routinely lead evening newscasts. It's tempting to dismiss the notion of retiring two or three of the world's most recognizable warships as political brinkmanship - a veiled attempt to push Congress into reversing big national security cuts. But defense analysts say people shouldn't roll their eyes at Hagel's warning or other drastic changes described last week in the Pentagon's first formal attempt to detail the long-term effects of sequestration.”  (8/9/13) 

 
 
Foreign Policy: Nuke the Budget – Tom Collina
“President Barack Obama, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Pentagon have determined that the United States has more strategic nuclear warheads than it needs to deter potential threats and can therefore reduce the deployed stockpile by up to one-third, to about 1,000 warheads. Hagel supported even deeper nuclear reductions before he was tapped to head the Pentagon. Perfect target for budget cuts, right? Wrong, says Hagel, who has taken the U.S. nuclear weapons budget off the chopping block, all $31 billion per year of it. But wait, this is exactly the kind of money saving opportunity the Pentagon should jump on. Hagel said July 31 that the just-completed Strategic Choices and Management Review, or SCMR, identified areas where ‘we have excess capacity to meet current and anticipated future needs,’ and that he would make program cuts on this basis. In April, Deputy Secretary of Defense Ash Carter told the Harvard Crimson that ‘we only deserve the amount of money that we need and not the amount of money that we've gotten used to.’”  (8/9/13) 

 
 
USA Today: The 21st-century jeep: The military's holy grail – Tom Vanden Brook
“The Pentagon's decade-long quest for a truck that can slog through desert sand, traverse mountain passes and — this is the kicker — keep troops safe from roadside bombs takes a step closer to reality this month. Three defense contractors are vying for the prize: production of the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV), the successor to the Humvee. The stakes: tens of billions of dollars in orders from the Army and Marine Corps. Defense heavyweights Lockheed Martin, Oshkosh Defense and AM General have until Aug. 22 to deliver 22 prototype trucks to the government for testing. They'll be driven and blasted and tested for reliability and safety. The first contract is to be signed in 2015. The first Army unit will be equipped with them in 2018. By 2035, the JLTV will replace one-third of its combat trucks. It wasn't supposed to be this way.” (8/8/13)

 
 
Foreign Policy: The Shoots of Hope Spring Eternal – Gordon Adams
“Courtesy of the sequester, the defense budget is due to decline around $52 billion next year, cutting about $500 billion from the current baseline over the next 10 years, unless Congress and the White House arrive at a different understanding about spending and revenue policies. Domestic discretionary spending is in for a similar hit without a budget bargain. With Congress safely out of town until September 8, it is worth taking a look at the prospects for a deal. They haven't been very good for the last three years, but, every once in a while, somebody pushes a phantom green shoot through the solid pavement of discord in Washington, and, briefly, people start to wonder.”  (8/6/13) 

 
 
National Defense Magazine: Unresolved Issues Hang Over U.S. Missile Shield - Sandra I. Erwin
“For the second year in a row, lawmakers will be squabbling this fall over if and when the United States should shore up its defenses against North Korean and Iranian ballistic missiles. The lightning rod in this debate is a Republican-led proposal to build a new ground-based missile interceptor site on the U.S. East Cost. Proponents contend that current sites, based in Alaska and California, do not provide enough coverage against a future possible attack by Iran, which is reportedly developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could target the United States… A confluence of trends and factors — Pentagon budget cuts, competing demands for homeland and overseas missile defense systems, poor test results of U.S. ground-based interceptors, and a toxic political environment — makes it a safe bet that an East Coast site or any significant enhancements to the nation’s missile shield systems will be deferred years into the future, possibly into the next administration.”  (8/6/13)

Reports

Congressional Budget Office: Monthly Budget Review for July 2013 (8/7/13) 
 
Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments: The Evolution of Precision Strike (8/6/13) 
 
Congressional Budget Office: Sequestration Update Report: August 2013 (8/6/13)

Thursday, August 1, 2013

8/1/13 RD Bulletin: Hagel Unveils Some Review Findings, Plans on Submitting Two Budgets in 2015


Highlights

News: The Senate Appropriations Committee will complete consideration of its annual defense appropriations bill this week, which would provide a total of $594 billion in military spending for Fiscal Year 2014, while blocking advanced procurement funding for the F-35 in Fiscal Year 2015.  Separately, the Pentagon has tentatively concluded a deal to purchase 60 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft over the next two years – effectively ignoring sequestration.

 
News: Inside Defense reports that the Pentagon is still deciding whether to exempt military personnel accounts from sequestration in Fiscal Year 2014.  President Obama decided to use such an exemption in Fiscal Year 2013.  A decision is expected by next week.

 
News: After meeting with President Obama yesterday to discuss fiscal negotiations, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) declared that the president “will not protect defense at the detriment of non-defense spending.”  This comes in response to House Republicans who have proposed shielding the Pentagon from sequester cuts.

 
Guest Perspectives: Reset Defense asked several national security experts to comment on the continuing resistance at DoD to making strategic and planning adjustments in light of new budgetary realities.  This week we feature commentaries from two respondents.

State of Play


After adamantly denying that he would publicly discuss the results of the Strategic Choices and Management Review, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel reversed course this week and unveiled some of the recommendations of the until-now closely guarded review.  This review is intended to inform budget decisions in Fiscal Years 2015 and beyond as well as the upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review.  In conducting the strategic review, budget planners examined three different budget scenarios: President Obama’s Fiscal Year 2014 budget submission, post-sequester spending caps, and an “in-between scenario,” in which half of the sequester cuts are carried out.

Yesterday, Hagel outlined several recommendations and themes emanating from the review: he has ordered a series of efficiency initiatives that aim to save the Pentagon $10 billion over the next five years.  Separate from the efficiency measures, Hagel repeated the Obama administration’s refrain that military compensation must be reformed if sequestration remains on the books.  With respect to overall end strength, Hagel noted that the Marine Corps and Army would shrink down to 150,000 and 380,000 respectively under a full-sequester scenario.  Regarding weapons systems, Hagel said sequestration could force the Navy to cut the number of carrier groups it fields from 11 to eight or nine and could trigger a decade-long modernization “holiday.”

Ultimately, however, Hagel noted that even with all of the cuts outlined in the strategic review, the Pentagon will not be able to meet post-sequester spending caps unless Congress facilitates additional reforms and savings.  “The reality is that cuts to overhead, compensation, and forces generate savings slowly. With dramatic reductions in each area, we do reach sequester-level savings – but only towards the end of a 10-year timeframe. Every scenario the review examined showed shortfalls in the early years of $30-35 billion.”

One surprising element was Hagel's declaration that the Pentagon would begin to submit two different budget plans to Congress.  Perhaps not coincidentally, days before Hagel’s announcement, his deputy, Ash Carter, announced that Pentagon budget planners have been granted additional time to submit their Fiscal Year 2015 spending blueprints because of all the budgetary mess caused by sequestration.
 
Legislative

The Senate Appropriations Committee is tackling its annual defense appropriations bill this week, a measure that would provide $516.4 billion for the Pentagon’s base budget plus an additional $77.8 billion in war funding.  As a result, the Senate version of this legislation is roughly $3-4 billion less than the House-passed version.  Neither bill comports with post-sequester spending caps, which will ultimately cull the Pentagon’s base budget down to roughly $475 billion (excluding war funding).  One feature of the Senate bill is that it would reduce advanced procurement funding for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) in Fiscal Year 2015 while still fully funding the Pentagon’s FY14 JSF request.  According to the committee report, the move is intended “to maintain focus on developmental testing and software deliveries.”

Meanwhile, the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin have tentatively announced a $7 billion deal for sixth and seventh production lot runs that ignore sequestration and would provide a total of 60 aircraft for the U.S. military.  The Pentagon had previously announced it would have to cut five planes from those buys; however, it now appears that the department will indeed be able to protect these procurement cycles.

Still, the Senate measure may never make it to the Floor for consideration due to large differences between the House and Senate spending outlines.  The House has proposed shielding the Pentagon budget from sequestration cuts while increasing spending reductions on the domestic side of the ledger.  The Senate, on the other hand, is largely proceeding along the contours of the Budget Control Act’s spending outline except that the upper chamber also is ignoring the cutbacks dictated by sequestration.  As a result, it would be exceptionally difficult, if not nearly impossible, for the two chambers to rectify differences in individual appropriations bills.  A more likely scenario is a Continuing Resolution, which largely adheres to current law spending levels.

In fact, Talking Points Memo reports that Senate Republicans may team up with Democrats in the upper chamber to put pressure on House Republicans to acquiesce to a ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution that would allow Congress to avoid a government shutdown, which currently looms menacingly over budget negotiations between the two parties.
 
Executive

One of the cost-saving measures proposed by the Pentagon in its most recent budget submission is a one-percent pay raise for service members – down from the traditional 1.8 percent raise that keeps pace with inflation.  Still, the decreased pay raise proposal must be approved by Congress, and the House has already taken a step toward rebuffing the Pentagon’s attempt at a smaller increase.  If Congress continues to deny the Pentagon’s attempts at saving personnel funding, Army Chief of Staff Ray Odierno recently told reporters that the service’s top acquisition priority, the Ground Combat Vehicle, could be further delayed or even axed.  “We made a recommendation this year for a military pay raise of 1 percent; [the] House passed 1.8 [percent]… We’re trying to work with Congress on this, but if we continue to have higher-level pay raises it’s going to become really a problem for us,” Odierno explained.  The Senate, meanwhile, has sided with the Pentagon on the issue.

The Ground Combat Vehicle itself has come under fire following a recent CBO report, which concluded that alternatives to the GCV are both more capable and billions of dollars less costly.  The GCV program has also been chastised for its overall weight, coming in at an estimated 84 tons, making it even heavier than the Army’s M1 Abrams tank.  The Project on Defense Alternatives has called on the Army to delay the Ground Combat Vehicle in Fiscal Year 2014 for approximately $400 million in savings.

In another cost-saving measure, the Air Force is providing early retirement options to enlisted personnel, in a move intended to help the service meet end-strength goals for Fiscal Year 2014.  Additionally, the service is exercising its ability to force early retirement for colonels and lieutenant colonels through its Temporary Early Retirement Authority.  The service is currently in the process of cutting 1,860 personnel from its ranks in order to meet its FY14 end strength goal of 327,600 airmen.

While the Air Force is engaging in early retirement and involuntary separation, the Army has taken a different approach.  In order to meet its goal of cutting 80,000 troops by Fiscal Year 2017, the Army is reinstating body-fat regulations that could cost soldiers their jobs if they are found to be overweight, which the service hopes will lead to a “leaner and meaner” force.

As a means of saving personnel funds, the Pentagon has been considering eliminating “imminent danger pay” for troops serving in the Middle East and Central Asia – a move designed to save $120 million per year.  However, CNN reports that the Pentagon is now considering shelving the idea due to a spike in violence in the two regions.  Separately, the Defense Department is urging the White House to drop consideration of a complete military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014.  The White House had previously leaked the idea of drawing down to zero U.S. personnel in Afghanistan after months of unflattering news stories about the leader of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai.  Instead of a so-called ‘zero option,’ the Pentagon is advocating for a residual force of at least 9,000 troops to remain in Afghanistan past 2014.

Project on Defense Alternatives Perspective

When sequestration began this past March, the Project on Defense Alternatives observed that it was fair enough for political leaders to dislike the automatic cuts, but their refusal to make adjustments to pre-sequester plans would cause damage to the armed forces.  “It is well past the time for the Pentagon to make responsible adjustments in accord with their new budget reality,” we wrote.

At the same time, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Martin Dempsey spoke about the effect of sequestration at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, saying then, “We’ll need to relook our assumptions. We’ll need to adjust our ambitions to match our abilities. That means doing less, but not doing it less well.”

Recently, we asked several national security experts to comment on the current widely-shared stance of denial in Washington regarding the need to adjust strategic ambitions in response to the political and economic conditions that Washington faces.

This week, we feature abstracts from two of our respondents:  Col. Larry Wilkerson (US Army, ret.) of William & Mary and Matthew Leatherman of the International Affairs Council of North Carolina.  The full text of their commentaries is posted on PDA’s Defense Strategy Review site.

Wilkerson argues that we can't understand the budget in strategic terms unless we aggregate all the components of what he calls the ‘national security budget:’ DoD, State, Homeland Security, Veterans, Energy, and all 17 intelligence agencies.  These agencies’ budgets total $1.2 trillion annually.  Wilkerson then says, “Since the best and only sensible strategic approach is to lead with soft rather than hard power, one realizes immediately how out of balance is the national security budget.”  With some sensible re-balancing, Wilkerson believes the national security budget can be cut by 6-8 percent over the coming decade.

Leatherman asserts that national politics cannot currently accommodate “matching strategy to sequester-level spending… So strategy stays where it is, sure to adjust because of the size of the cuts but not yet adjusted.”   Referring to Secretary Hagel's statement in a July letter to the Senate Armed Services Committee that sequester places “at much greater risk the country's ability to meet our current national security commitments,” Leatherman responds that “strategy-driven drawdowns aren't about holding current commitments constant and accepting risk everywhere.  To the contrary, they're about raising the bar so that goals our strategy prioritizes are unaffected and [lower priority] goals that barely snuck into earlier budgets fall away.”
 
Charles Knight is a co-founder of the Project on Defense Alternatives and a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.

 

News and Commentary

Foreign Policy: The Pentagon's Stages of Budget Grief – Gordon Adams
“The defense budget is going down. The Defense Department has been through the first two stages of grief: denial and anger. Denial was from FY 2010 to FY 2012 – ‘the budget should not go down, we need more.’ Anger was 2012 -- the Aerospace Industries Association campaign to halt sequestration, Senators McCain, Graham, and Ayotte touring bases and plants, ‘defending defense’ and hoping to influence the election and reverse the tide. Now we are at ‘bargaining,’ the stage where the department and the services try to make a deal that will slow the decline, delay the effects. Secretary Chuck Hagel and Admiral Sandy Winnefeld, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made this clear on Wednesday, July 31, when they rolled out the Strategic Choices and Management Review (SCMR). The key signal that we have arrived at ‘bargaining’ was the demand the secretary made for ‘time.’ Just give us more time because these cuts cannot come so fast, he argued. We cannot manage them.”


 
Roll Call: Sequester Weakens Military, Fails to Address Real Pentagon Waste – Bob Ridder
“As deep as these cuts go, the sequester fails to address real wasteful spending in the Pentagon. For instance, underperforming and expensive development programs like the F-35 fighter jet are still burning a hole in the Pentagon budget. This new aircraft, which has been shielded from the sequester, is almost a decade behind schedule, expected to cost $1.5 trillion and yet critical systems still don’t work — from the pilot’s “augmented reality” helmet to its 10 million lines of software code. Comparing the F-35’s acceleration, maneuverability and survivability, fighter jet experts have said that the F-35 performs poorer than many legacy aircraft. So even with its problems fixed, the jet’s mediocre performance doesn’t justify its skyrocketing price tag.”  (7/29/13)

 
 
USA Today: Afghan waste: aid money squandered on conferences – Tom Vanden Brook
“A U.S. program designed to promote stability in war-ravaged Afghanistan has spent $47 million money on conferences and none on grants to accomplish its aim, according to a report released Monday by the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction. SIGAR has found waste under just about every rock it's kicked over in Afghanistan. It recently found that a brand-spanking new $34 million headquarters for the Marines at Camp Leatherneck was unnecessary and may never be used.”  (7/29/13) 

 
 
The Cable: U.S. Spends $24 Million On ‘Propaganda Plane' Few Can See or Hear – John Hudson
“It's difficult to find a more wasteful government program. For the last six years, the U.S. government has spent more than $24 million to fly a plane around Cuba and beam American-sponsored TV programming to the island's inhabitants. But every day the plane flies, the government in Havana jams its broadcast signal. Few, if any, Cubans can see what it broadcasts. The program is run by the U.S. Broadcasting Board of Governors, and for the last two years, it has asked Congress to scrap the program, citing its exorbitant expense and dubious cost-effectiveness. "The signal is heavily jammed by the Cuban government, significantly limiting this platform's reach and impact on the island," reads the administration's fiscal year 2014 budget request.” (7/28/13)

 
 
Defense News: Furlough Folly: By Delaying Pain, DoD Leadership Fails – Michael Cadenazzi, Chris Daehnick
“The slow motion, completely avoidable and politically unstoppable impact of sequestration will bite hard in coming weeks as one of its many anticipated horrors takes hold — specifically, reductions in spending that will furlough federal employees across the Department of Defense. Despite the rhetoric, furloughs tangibly demonstrate that DoD leadership is more concerned with loyalty than improving performance — in the Pentagon and across the defense system. The decision to exempt DoD personnel accounts, and thereby minimize the impact on active duty personnel and their families, was well received. But in cascading fashion, it added to the pressure on investment and, primarily, operations and maintenance accounts where defense civilians are funded.”  (7/28/13) 

 
 
New York Times: Few Suitors to Build a New Marine One – Christopher Drew
“Wanting to clamp down on wasteful spending, President Obama halted a project to create new presidential helicopters four years ago, saying its soaring price was a symbol of government contracting ‘gone amok.’ But to the administration’s surprise, a new competition to build the helicopters much more cheaply is also running into trouble. Industry officials said that only one company, Sikorsky Aircraft, was likely to bid on the multibillion-dollar contract this week. And some of Sikorsky’s rivals are voicing an increasingly common complaint — that bid specifications are being written so narrowly they are driving away potential competitors.”  (7/28/13) 

 
 
National Journal: The Sequester Will Lift, Not Cut, Defense Costs – Sara Sorcher
“Sequestration will not kill the defense industry. The military will always need weapons and equipment, which is perhaps why the pleas from Lockheed and other defense giants failed to sway Washington policymakers to compromise and avoid sequestration in the first place. But the budget downturn will be painful, and certain parts of the food chain may go hungry. Once these cuts become real, small- and medium-sized business in members’ districts will start to suffer, and that is sure to bite politically. By then, it may be too late to save them.”  (7/25/13)



Reports

Government Accountability Office: DOD’s POW/MIA Mission: Capability and Capacity to Account for Missing Persons Undermined by Leadership Weaknesses and Fragmented Organizational Structure (8/1/13) 
 
 
Government Accountability Office: Army Logistics: Container Handling Equipment Requirements, Contracts, and Inventory (7/31/13) 
 
 
Government Accountability Office: Defense Acquisitions: DOD Efforts to Adopt Open Systems for Its Unmanned Aircraft Systems Have Progressed Slowly (7/31/13) 
 
 
Government Accountability Office: Military Readiness: Opportunities Exist to Improve Completeness and Usefulness of Quarterly Reports to Congress (7/26/13) 
 
 
Government Accountability Office: Missile Defense: Precision Tracking Space System Evaluation of Alternatives (7/25/13) 
 
 
Congressional Budget Office: S. 1197, National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2014 (7/25/13)
 
 
Congressional Budget Office: How Eliminating the Automatic Spending Reductions Specified by the Budget Control Act Would Affect the U.S. Economy in 2014 (7/25/13) 
 
 
Government Accountability Office: Navy Shipbuilding: Significant Investments in the Littoral Combat Ship Continue Amid Substantial Unknowns about Capabilities, Use, and Cost (7/23/13) 
 
 
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction: Stability in Key Areas (SIKA) Programs: After 16 Months and $47 Million Spent, USAID Had Not Met Essential Program Objectives (July 2013)

Thursday, July 25, 2013

7/25/13 RD Bulletin: House Passes DOD Spending Bill With Large OCO Cut


Highlights

News: The House has completed consideration of its annual defense appropriations bill, during which a successful amendment offered by Reps. Mick Mulvaney and Chris Van Hollen cut roughly $3.5 billion from the OCO account.

 
PDA Perspective: A retired Air Force chief has confirmed that moving some units to reserve status and using ‘tiered readiness’ are good options for budget-constrained forces.

Executive

As reported last week, scant details continue to emerge from the Pentagon’s closely-guarded Strategic Choices and Management Review.  In written response to questions about his upcoming confirmation, Chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey announced that the strategic review has concluded that the White House’s 2012 defense guidance is sound despite the onset of sequestration.  That 2012 guidance set in motion the Pentagon’s new ‘Asia pivot,’ which the strategic review also was designed to assess.

Dempsey further told senators that the Pentagon will continue to highlight assets that support the Asia pivot, saying that the United States must “further prioritize missions within the context of a continued rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region.”  The Pentagon’s new Asia pivot envisions the Navy forward-deploying sixty percent of its vessels to the Pacific region as well as the deployment of 2,500 marines to Australia.  As evidence of the importance of this new strategic pivot, the United States is currently holding the largest ever joint military exercise with Australia involving 20,000 troops, fifteen naval vessels, and for the first time ever, the MV-22 Osprey.

In his letter, Dempsey also warned senators of the effects that sequestration could wreck on the armed forces if Congress fails to void the automatic spending cuts: “Unready forces, misaligned global posture, inability to keep pace with emerging threats, reduced security cooperation, and failure to maintain a high quality All Volunteer Force.”

With the House of Representatives having approved a defense appropriations bill this week that provides more than $50 billion above what sequestration allows, it appears as if the Pentagon is in for another round of sequester cuts next January.  Unlike Fiscal Year 2013, Congress has the ability in Fiscal Year 2014 to avoid sequestration by budgeting to lower spending levels.  Still, with both chambers of Congress moving forward with pre-sequester military budgets; it seems increasingly unlikely that the Pentagon can avoid the automatic cuts in FY14.

As a result, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel warned civilian employees last week that another round of Pentagon furloughs is possible next year (though the House recently adopted language that would block the Pentagon from carrying out furloughs in FY14).  In an interview with the Associated Press responding to Hagel’s recent announcement, CSBA’s Todd Harrison pointed out that while the number of active duty troops has grown by three percent since 2000, the number of civilian employees working at the Pentagon has grown by 14 percent over the same time period.  Analysts from the Project on Defense Alternatives and Cato Institute have called on the Pentagon to reduce its civilian workforce by five percent.  This idea seems to be gaining particular traction amongst conservative defense analysts in Washington.
 
Legislative

Historically, the defense and military construction spending bills are usually the first appropriations measures considered by Congress each year.  Typically, this is done to show solidarity with troops in the field but also because the military spending bills are considered less controversial then domestic appropriations bills.

In order to comply with the overall spending cap implemented by the Budget Control Act while still bolstering military spending, House Republicans have proposed doubling spending cuts to domestic accounts while preventing sequester cuts to the military budget.  However, POLITICO’s David Rogers reports that the Republican leadership’s spending plans may fall victim to internal party politics: “Like an army that’s outrun its supply line, the Republican budget strategy in Congress shows almost daily signs of coming apart. The central premise, as sold by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, was that Washington could wipe out deficits in 10 years and protect defense spending, all while embracing the lower appropriations caps dictated by sequestration. Four months later, it’s proving to be a bridge too far.”

In hopes of avoiding a budget trap set by House Republicans, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has decided to proceed with controversial domestic spending bills first.  In explaining his decision, Reid commented, “Those days are behind us… We are not going to be gamed by having the military programs funded at a much higher level than Head Start program, or NIH. We’re not going to do that. We’re through.”  Separately, the Senate is not expected to consider the annual National Defense Authorization Act until after the August recess.

While the Senate is moving forward with domestic spending bills, the House this week completed consideration of its annual defense appropriations bill, which a slew of controversial amendments had temporarily threatened to derail.  The bill, as reported out by committee, would have originally provided $512.5 billion for the Pentagon’s base budget plus an additional $85.5 billion in war funding.  However, a series of amendments were approved during Floor consideration of the bill that reduced the measure’s topline amount, including several amendments offered by both Republicans and Democrats that cut billions of dollars in aid intended for Afghan infrastructure projects and security services.

Additionally, Representatives Mick Mulvaney (R-SC) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) offered an amendment that reduced OCO funding in the bill by roughly $3.5 billion to better match the Pentagon’s Fiscal Year 2014 budget request.  Because the Budget Control Act constrains the Pentagon’s base budget, but not the OCO account, the department has been shifting items from the former to the latter, an issue which the Project on Defense Alternatives highlighted in a report last year.

Commenting to Reset Defense on the Mulvaney-Van Hollen amendment’s passage, the Stimson Center’s Russell Rumbaugh points out that “the House was playing games with the [Budget Control Act’s] discretionary caps.  To make it look like they were lower than the President, they had moved base funding into war funding.  Except the Mulvaney-Van Hollen amendment just chopped off most of that extra war funding.  Meaning the base DoD budget is declining too.  Since the Senate bill takes bite out of the base bill, the conference is likely to come in lower than the President’s request.”

Project on Defense Alternatives Perspective

According to POLITICO’S Leigh Munsil, retired Air Force General Ron Fogleman (Chief of Staff 1994-1997), when addressing National Commission on the Structure of the Air Force on Tuesday, “... said the need for the commission ... showed the current service had run out of ideas for dealing with tomorrow’s slimmer budgets.”  Fogleman pointed out that there are a number force structure options for the Air Force.  These include: “... make the active-duty force smaller; enable the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve to meet tighter readiness timelines; allow for ‘tiered’ readiness; and make a place in the force structure for an operational Reserve.”

Finally someone from the services, albeit a retired senior officer, is talking about the tried and true options that exist for the military when money is tight, which, of course, was not the case for the services for the last decade and half since Fogleman stepped down as head of the Air Force.  Now, though, money is getting tight.

The reserve U.S. air force components are large and powerful.  They also cost the nation much less per unit than does the active component.  Advocates of today’s relatively large active component argue that the ‘fighting edge’ of pilots degrades rapidly when they are no longer in active units.   On the other hand, reserve pilots almost always keep flying, often as commercial aviators.  The don't lose all that they learned when they were in active units and their skills can be brought up to fighting level in short order.

The Project on Defense Alternatives has recommended an 11 percent cut in the Air Force active component personnel and active fighter squadrons.  Many of these squadrons should probably be assigned to the reserves.

Work needs to be done within the service to improve the “readiness timelines” of reserve units and to get better cost data on Air Force reserve units at differing levels of readiness, Fogleman points out.

In Fogleman’s opinion, Munsil reports, “Pentagon protestations that sequestration is devastating to national security and troop readiness don’t give the full picture... Instead, less readiness may not be the sky-is-falling scenario Defense Department officials keep warning of, especially if commanders plan upfront for how they’ll handle which units will stay ready for which assignments.”

“'I think there is, in fact, room in all services for tiered readiness,' Fogleman said.”
 
Charles Knight is a co-founder of the Project on Defense Alternatives and a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.

 

News and Commentary

World Politics Review: Strategic Horizons: To Build Future Military, U.S. First Needs Strategic Vision - Steven Metz
“The community of national security experts is consumed with debate on the appropriate size and configuration of the American military. Seldom does a week pass without some new report, commission or conference offering solemn advice on this complex issue. Policy journals and op-ed pages are awash with articles on it. Such vigorous discussion is a good thing, but it may be focused on the wrong issue—ultimately the size of the armed forces matters less than what they are asked to do.”  (7/24/13) 

 
 
New York Times: A Failure to Intercept
“After 30 years of research and an estimated $250 billion investment, the Pentagon’s defense program against intercontinental ballistic missiles from adversaries like Iran and North Korea had another failed test this month. The advanced missile interceptor launched on July 5 from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California failed to hit its target over the Pacific Ocean, the third consecutive dud. The military has tested the ground-based midcourse defense system 16 times; only eight were successful, the last in 2008. One might expect the record to be near perfect since the tests are rigged, conducted in what the program’s director, Vice Admiral James Syring of the Navy, calls a “controlled, scripted environment.” The Pentagon is doing a review to determine the cause of the latest failure. But whatever the cause, it is apparent that the program’s weaknesses go beyond this case.”  (7/24/13) 

 
 
U.S. News and World Report: The Pentagon Has Too Many Generals – Benjamin Freeman
“Troop levels are being cut. Civilians are being furloughed. Planes are being grounded. Ships are being docked. But the Pentagon's top ranks are thriving. Over the past 10 years, as the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan raged, the U.S. military's enlisted ranks shrank, while the officer corps – particularly the general and flag officer ranks – and the bureaucracy supporting these top commanders, grew immensely. Earlier this month Third Way released a report on this trend, reaching a disquieting conclusion – the U.S. military is more top-heavy than it has ever been. While I, and others, have documented this trend before, it's only gotten worse. The U.S. military now has an officer-to-enlisted personnel ratio that's at an all-time high; this imbalance will only worsen with the recent announcement of further reductions to the force.”  (7/24/13) 

 
 
National Interest: The Deceptive Appeal of the Responsibility to Protect – John Allen Gay
“The Working Group on the Responsibility to Protect, a panel of impressive foreign-policy figures convened jointly by the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Brookings Institution and the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, has just released its final report to much fanfare. The document, ‘The United States and R2P: From Words to Action,’ is a robust long-form exegesis and defense of the R2P concept; given the rise of R2P proponents within the Obama administration of late, it is well timed and deserves examination. Former secretary of state Madeleine Albright and former presidential envoy to Sudan Richard Williamson attempt to ease critics’ worries that R2P is a recipe for endless American ‘police actions’ divorced from core U.S. interests. Yet this is a straw man, and they fail to address R2P’s real problem—its disregard for national sovereignty, which gives it potential to create, rather than ease, instability.”  (7/23/13) 

 
 
USA Today: Fraud fouls up fight against IEDs in Afghanistan – Tom Vanden Brook
“A key aspect of the military's effort to protect troops from roadside bombs has been sabotaged from within, according to a report by Pentagon's special inspector general for Afghanistan. A $32-million effort begun in 2009 to seal off culverts to prevent insurgents from using them as hiding places for improvised explosive devices (IEDs) has been plagued by fraud and may have resulted in several U.S. troops being killed or wounded, the report notes. The inspector general found that Afghan contractors took money to construct the barriers, and in some cases did no work. U.S. contracting officers didn't do enough to ensure the work was done.”


 
TIME: Are Private Contractors Really Cheaper? – David Isenberg
“Those who support using private military and security contractors often claim that a major reason for doing so is that it is more cost-effective than using regular military forces. While there hasn’t been a whole lot of rigorous evidence put forward to substantiate the claim, especially considering the decades the argument has been forward, basic fairness dictates that we have to say it is possible. But, as the saying goes: be careful what you ask for, because you might just get it. Perhaps the reason contractors are more effective than regular military forces is that they are more prone to getting shafted by their employers. Naturally, that is not the argument a pro-private-military-and-security-contractor advocate might want to cite, but a paper written in 2012 provides some compelling evidence that it is the case.”  (7/23/13) 

 
 
Huffington Post: Ash at Aspen: Low-balling the Cost of Nukes – William Hartung
“When asked by New York Times chief Washington correspondent David Sanger whether it might not ‘save you considerably’ to cut U.S. nuclear forces by one-third, [Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton] Carter responded by saying that nuclear weapons are not ‘a big swinger of the budget" because "they don't cost that much.’ As the late Everett Dirksen was alleged to have said, a billion dollars here, a billion dollars there, and pretty soon you're talking real money. And even by Washington standards, the nation is spending real money on nuclear weapons -- money that would be better used for virtually any other purpose at a time of tight budgets and shifting national security priorities. The high cost of nukes should motivate us to do what we should be doing anyway -- getting rid of weapons that serve no useful purpose and do far more harm than good to U.S. and global security. Reasonable people can disagree about how to get there, but President Obama was right when he said we need to work towards a world free of nuclear weapons.”


 
National Defense Magazine: Defense Auditors: Why So Many Spare Parts? – Sandra Erwin
Defense Department auditors regularly scour the Pentagon’s online procurement portal, known as Electronic Mall or DoD E-Mall — in search of clues to questionable spending. One area that has drawn their attention in recent years has been spare parts orders. By some estimates, the Defense Department spends up to $70 billion a year on logistics support of weapons systems, which includes spare parts. The Pentagon has no precise estimate of current inventories. Auditors have questioned whether many of these purchases meet legitimate needs. Of 114 audits that the Defense Department’s inspector general office is conducting in fiscal year 2013, nine target spare parts. IG reports over the past two years have increasingly challenged the quantities bought and the prices paid for military spare parts. Investigators also found warehouses packed with unneeded items.  (7/21/13) 

 
 
Los Angeles Times: Report questions costs of villas and mansions for top military brass – David Cloud
“The perks for top military brass, a Pentagon tradition, are under increasing scrutiny in Congress at a time when budget reductions and the mandatory spending cuts known as the sequester have forced the Pentagon to cut services, close facilities, cancel training and missions, and furlough 680,000 civilian workers… In the annual appropriations bill for military construction approved by a House committee last month, lawmakers criticized the Pentagon for the ‘excessive cost’ of maintaining ‘large and aging’ homes and for the ‘apparent unwillingness on the part of the [military] services to seek less expensive alternatives.’ All active-duty military personnel and their families receive free housing on bases or allowances to defray the cost of renting or buying in nearby communities. It costs the Pentagon $1.5 billion a year.”  (7/20/13) 

 
 
Stars and Stripes: Despite nearly $1B effort, Navy still can't audit books - Steven Beardsley
“Despite spending nearly a billion dollars to overhaul its accounting system, the Navy still can’t support its appraisals of the value of ships, aircraft and other military equipment, a DOD Inspector General report found. The Navy reported $416 billion worth of equipment in its inventory in the last fiscal year, a figure that totals the value of military equipment as adjusted by age, wear and lifespan.” (7/19/13) 

 
 
War on the Rocks: Force Modernization and Readiness: A Zero Sum Game? – Jonathan Rue
“Modernization and readiness appear to be locked in a zero sum game. What good is maximum readiness if the force is using broken and obsolete equipment? Conversely, how will the force use the next generation of weapons to their maximum potential if there’s not enough money to train with them? In order to relieve some of the downward pressure on both, personnel must enter the equation; however, reducing end strength will only work up to a certain point. Policymakers must confront the rising costs of the All Volunteer Force if they’re to have a military capable of answering their frequent phone calls.”  (7/19/13) 

 
 
Defense One: Ditch the QDR – Doug Wilson
“The Secretary of Defense and senior Pentagon leaders are looking everywhere for ways to save money. They are bound and determined to eliminate waste and duplication and ensure that, at a time of sequestration and furlough, both money and man-hours are spent wisely and efficiently. If Congress will agree, here’s a modest proposal that will lop off thousands of man-hours and hundreds of thousands of dollars for the next seven months, for work on a project that’s already been done: ditch the upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review.”  (7/19/13)



Reports

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments: The Future of MILSATCOM (7/24/13) 
 
 
Government Accountability Office: Building Partner Capacity: DOD Is Meeting Most Targets for Colombia's Regional Helicopter Training Center but Should Track Graduates (7/24/13) 
 
 
Small Wars Journal: Sustainable Development as a Military Tool (7/20/13)
 
 
Congressional Research Service: Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A Catalog of Treaties and Agreements (7/15/13) 
 
 
Congressional Research Service: The 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force: Background in Brief (7/10/13) 
 
 
Truman National Security Project: Security Briefing Book (July 2013) 
 
 
United States Holocaust Memorial: The United States and R2P: From Words to Action (July 2013) 
 
 
Third Way: The F-35 is the Future, Not the Present, of U.S. Fighter Aircraft (July 2013)
 
 
Third Way: Star Creep: The Costs of a Top-Heavy Military (June 2013)